Download Locations:
Summary:
N u c l e a r , biological, and chemical weapons (NBCW) pose the most serious threats to the United States and its foreign interests. Ballistic and cruise missiles, aircraft, covert f o r c e s , and terrorist groups are considered possible means of delivering these weapons of m a s s destruction. The total number of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons stockpiled throughout the world is decreasing as the major powers scale back their inventories, but some additional countries and groups are trying to acquire these weapons. U.S. and allied policy makers debate the rate of proliferation and the nature and extent of the threat to the United States and its allies, and the weapons' effects on international stability. These issues and the policy preferences of various segments of the security p o l i c y communities in the United States and overseas have led to markedly different approaches to countering NBC weapons and missile threats. The purpose of this paper i s to assemble current information on the status of weapons programs around the globe and analyze patterns regarding the threats posed by these weapons. China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have welle s t a b l i s h e d arsenals of nuclear weapons and are considered nuclear-weapon states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in 1998; Israel is believed to have numerous nuclear weapons; and North Korea is thought to have one or two. U.S. intelligence officials predict more countries will acquire them in the next decade or so. About a dozen countries have offensive biological weapons p r o g r a m s , and about 17 countries were reportedly known or likely to have had chemical weapons when the Chemical Weapons Convention went into effect. The number of c o u n t r i e s and subnational groups that will be able to produce at least small quantities of CW and BW weapons is likely to grow as new technologies are developed and the international flow of goods, people, and technology continues to increase. The number that will produce and stockpile WMD may decrease if diplomatic efforts, arms control treaties, nonproliferation regimes, and security strategies are effective. While the United States and R u s s i a are reducing their intercontinental missile inventories and have eliminated intermedi ate-range missiles, China is modernizing and expanding its missile force, and N o r t h Korea, Iran, Israel, India, and Pakistan are building short- and medium-range missiles and are developing longer-range missiles. Dozens of countries have or are developing ballistic missiles and more are likely to acquire them. F r o m the United States and Europe, across North Africa and the Middle East, through South Asia to Northeast Asia, nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons and missiles will probably be a potential threat for the foreseeable future. More countries and gr oups will have the ability to inflict mass casualties and mass destruction on their adversaries within their country, within their region, and even those at a great distance. While the threats of nuclear, biological, and chemical warfare associated with the Cold War are greatly diminished, new threats have emerged and more may develop in the coming decade as elements in North Korea, Russia, China, and other countries continue to export weapons technology.
