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Summary:
The United States has long recognized the dangers of nuclear, biological, and
chemical (NBC) weapons, and missiles proliferation. Despite the preeminence of
U.S. military power, or perhaps because of it, these weapons continue to pose threats
to the United States and its foreign interests. NBC weapons could be delivered by
means ranging from simple options (e.g., ships, trucks), to aircraft, cruise or ballistic
missiles.
The total number of NBC weapons in the world is shrinking as the major
powers scale back their inventories through unilateral reductions and arms control,
but other countries and groups still try to acquire these weapons. Especially since
September 11, 2001, U.S. and allied leaders have debated the nature and extent of the
threat, the impact on international stability, and the opportunities terrorists might
exploit.
The number of nuclear arsenals worldwide is small. There are the established
nuclear weapon states (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United
States), while India, Pakistan and Israel are believed to have nuclear weapon arsenals.
North Korea is thought to have separated enough plutonium for at least one or two
weapons, and possibly six. Iran is considered by U.S. intelligence to be pursuing a
nuclear weapons program, and international inspections have revealed significant
strides in its nuclear fuel cycle capabilities.
About 12 countries have offensive biological weapons (BW) programs, and
about 17 countries were reportedly known or likely to have had chemical weapons
(CW) when the Chemical Weapons Convention went into effect. The number of
countries and sub-national groups that will be able to produce at least small quantities
of chemical and biological weapons is expected to grow as the international flow of
information, goods, people, and technology continues. While the United States and
Russia are reducing their intercontinental missile inventories, China is modernizing
and expanding its missile force. North Korea, Iran, Israel, India, and Pakistan are
building short- and medium-range missiles and are developing longer-range missiles.
Dozens of countries have or are developing short-range ballistic missiles and more
are likely to buy them. Over 80 countries have cruise missiles; about 40 manufacture
or have the ability to manufacture them.
Although Cold War NBC threats are greatly diminished, elements in North
Korea, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and other countries continue to export
weapons technology. Concern about the ability of individual actors, like the Pakistani
nuclear scientist, A.Q. Khan, to peddle nuclear technology has grown considerably.
The number of countries or groups that will acquire or produce NBC weapons may
decrease if diplomacy, arms control treaties, nonproliferation regimes, and security
and assistance strategies are effective, but NBC weapons and missiles will remain a
potential threat for the foreseeable future. This report is updated annually.
