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Summary:
In his January 29, 2002 State of the Union message, President Bush characterized Iraq as part of an "axis of evil," along with Iran and North Korea. The President identified the key threat from Iraq as its development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the potential for Iraq to transfer WMD to the terrorist groups it sponsors. The President's speech left observers with the clear implication that the Administration is planning to take additional steps to achieve the ouster of Iraq's President Saddam Husayn and his Ba'th Party regime. In comments after the speech, senior U.S. officials reiterated that it was already U.S. policy to work toward a change of Iraq's regime. The President's comments raised the possibility that the Administration might try to go beyond previous efforts to destabilize Iraq by aiding internal opponents of the regime. Those efforts have been pursued, with varying degrees of intensity, since the end of the Gulf war in 1991. According to several experts, past efforts to change the regime floundered because of limited U.S. engagement, disorganization of the Iraqi opposition, and the efficiency and ruthlessness of Iraq's several overlapping intelligence and security forces. Some past U.S. efforts focused on an attempt to promote a military coup from within Iraq's regime, while other U.S. activities consisted primarily of supporting organized opposition groups composed of groups outside Iraq's current power structure. Some experts believe that the removal of Saddam Husayn would require substantially more U.S. assistance to the opposition than has been dedicated to this purpose previously, or the direct use of U.S. armed force. Some are concerned that Saddam's removal could lead to the fragmentation of Iraq and not necessarily produce a stable regime that is attuned to U.S. values and U.S. interests. There are also concerns that most Western and virtually all Arab governments have publicly stated opposition to a U.S. military effort against Iraq. An alternative view is that the Iraqi opposition is stronger than widely believed, and that a minor amount of U.S. help could bring it to power. Some believe that almost any successor regime would be preferable to that of Saddam Husayn, and that Saddam's removal would almost certainly bring an end to Iraq's WMD programs. Advocates of forceful steps to change Iraq's regime maintain that Iraq's neighbors would support a U.S. overthrow effort, even if it involves the direct use of U.S. military force, provided the effort succeeds. Congress, in various legislative measures including the 1998 Iraq Liberation Act, has made clear its support for changing Iraq's regime. However, some Members have questioned the costs and risks of strategies currently under discussion.
