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Summary:
The Administration is claiming success in significantly reducing violence in Iraq to the point where additional U.S. troop reductions can be considered, attributing the gains to a "troop surge" announced by President Bush on January 10, 2007 ("New Way Forward"). With the 28,500 "surge" forces withdrawn as of July 2008, Defense Department reports assess that overall violence is down as much as 80% since early 2007, to levels not seen since 2004, but that progress can be "fragile and tenuous" if not accompanied by fundamental political reconciliation and economic development. The Administration believes that additional "conditions-based" reductions in U.S. forces, continued building of Iraq's security forces, and likely further political progress in Iraq -- is likely to produce a unified, democratic Iraq that can govern and defend itself and is an ally in the war on terror. The Administration argues that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is increasingly recognized as capable, and that Iraqi legislative action in Iraq since the beginning of 2008 represents a substantial measure of the progress on political reconciliation that was envisioned would be facilitated by the surge. However, U.S. disagreements with Maliki's proposed timeline for a U.S. withdrawal have prolonged negotiations on a U.S.-Iraq agreement that would govern the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq beyond December 2008. Provincial council elections, originally planned for October 1, 2008, and considered crucial to further reconciliation, are now unlikely to be held in 2008 because a split between the Kurds and Iraq's Arabs over the status of Kirkuk has thus far prevented passage of a needed election law. There are still substantial tensions between the Shiite-dominated government and those Sunni leaders and fighters who have been key to combating Al Qaeda and stabilizing large parts of Iraq, and continued concerns over the degree to which the Shiite faction of Moqtada Al Sadr will integrate into the political process. The progress comes after several years of frustration that Operation Iraqi Freedom had overthrown Saddam Hussein's regime, only to see Iraq wracked during 2004-2007 by violence caused by Sunni Arab resentment and a related insurgency, resulting Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence, competition among Shiite groups, and the failure of Iraq's government to equitably administer justice or deliver services. Mounting U.S. casualties and financial costs -- without clear movement toward national political reconciliation -- stimulated debate within the United States over whether the initial goals of the intervention -- a stable, democratic Iraq that is a partner in the global war on terrorism -- could ever be achieved, and at what cost. Partly because there is a perception that the troop surge has succeeded, there has not been the required level of support in Congress to mandate a troop withdrawal, a timetable for withdrawal, although there is growing support for compelling Iraq to fund key functions now funded by the United States. This report is updated regularly. See also CRS Report RS21968, Iraq: Reconciliation and Benchmarks, by Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report RL31833, Iraq: Reconstruction Assistance, by Curt Tarnoff; and CRS Report RL33793, Iraq: Regional Perspectives and U.S. Policy, coordinated by Christopher Blanchard.
