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Summary:
This report reviews the terrorist environment in South Asia, concentrating on
Pakistan and India, but also including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and
Nepal. The existence of international terrorist groups and their supporters in South
Asia is identified as a threat to both regional stability and to the attainment of central
U.S. policy goals. Al Qaeda forces that fled from Afghanistan with their Taliban
supporters remain active on Pakistani territory, and Al Qaeda is believed to have
links with indigenous Pakistani terrorist groups that have conducted anti-Western
attacks and that support separatist militancy in Indian Kashmir. A significant portion
of Pakistan's ethnic Pashtun population is reported to sympathize with the Taliban
and even Al Qaeda. The United States maintains close counterterrorism cooperation
with Pakistan aimed especially at bolstering security and stability in neighboring
Afghanistan. In the latter half of 2003, the Islamabad government began limited
military operations in the traditionally autonomous tribal areas of western Pakistan.
Such operations intensified in 2004 in coordination with U.S. and Afghan forces just
across the international frontier.
The relationships between Al Qaeda, the Taliban, indigenous Pakistani terrorist
groups, and some elements of Pakistan's political-military structure are complex and
murky, but may represent a serious threat to the attainment of key U.S. policy goals.
There are indications that elements of Pakistan's intelligence service and Pakistani
Islamist political parties have provided assistance to U.S.-designated Foreign
Terrorist Organizations. A pair of December 2003 attempts to assassinate Pakistan's
President Musharraf reportedly were linked to both Al Qaeda and a Pakistan-based
terrorist group. Lethal, but failed attempts to assassinate other top Pakistani officials
in June and July 2004 killed some 20 people and also were linked to Al Qaeda-allied
groups. After a long period during which few notable arrests were made in Pakistan,
security officers there appear in the summer of 2004 to have made major strides in
breaking up significant Al Qaeda and related networks operating in Pakistani cities.
The 9/11 Commission Report released in July 2004 contains recommendations
for U.S. policy toward Pakistan. The report emphasizes the importance of
prioritizing the elimination of terrorist sanctuaries in western Pakistan and near the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and calls for the provision of long-term and
comprehensive support to the government of President Musharraf so long as that
government remains committed to combating terrorism and to a policy of
"enlightened moderation."
The United States remains concerned by the continued "cross-border
infiltration" of Islamic militants who traverse the Kashmiri Line of Control to engage
in terrorist acts in India and Indian Kashmir. India also is home to several indigenous
separatist and Maoist-oriented terrorist groups. Moreover, it is thought that some Al
Qaeda elements fled to Bangladesh. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
of Sri Lanka have been designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization under U.S.
law, while Harakat ul-Jihad-I-Islami/Bangladesh, and the Communist Party of Nepal
(Maoist)/ United Peoples Front, have been listed as "other terrorist groups" by the
State Department. This report will be updated periodically.
